Predicting the Solar Cycle: Where do we stand?

Speaker: Dibyendu Nandi

Nov 8, 2022 11:00 PST

While it’s important to understand the genesis of solar activity and predict the strength of future cycles, efforts towards this direction has been fraught with uncertainties and disagreement across different forecasting techniques. In this talk I shall analyze the current state of this field and discuss important insights towards understanding the predictability of the solar dynamo mechanism. I shall demonstrate that data-driven physical model based forecasts have reached a (near) consensus on the strength of solar cycle 25. These models indicate that the Babcock-Leighton poloidal field generation mechanism is the primary driver of decadal-scale solar cycle variability; this underscores the importance of constraining this mechanism through accurate observations of magnetic flux transport across the surface of the Sun, including the Sun’s poles.


Watch the recording.